The tabling of his 2010 Medium-Term Budget policy statement yesterday by finance minister Pravin Gordhan in Parliament delivered no real surprises, reflected the uncertain global economic environment, and was widely met with approval from business and political circles. But there were also immediate signs that the days of high tensions with organised labour are far from over. It was largely a matter of business as usual.
In a nutshell the main features are that revenue is somewhat higher and expenditure slightly lower; priorities as expected are education, health and infrastructure; it reflects South Africa’s limited control over movements in the value of its currency and it largely maintains the course that was started in the medium-term policy statement of the previous year.
That, however, while it is clearly anchored in the stark realities of the tough domestic and global economic environments, is not to say that the policy statement was boring. It would be interesting to observe how the details of some of the declared intentions play out in the months to come.
For one there are the measures promised to deal with corruption and the scourge of tenderpreneurship. There is the announcement of moves towards tougher controls over the financial sector – an issue that has been in the spotlight internationally ever since the financial crisis of 2008 and the battle – to be led by the Reserve Bank – to keep the rand competitive.
Business South Africa (BUSA) said in its response the “… statement has put a strong focus and emphasis on the robustness of the South African economy within the context of the prevailing financial market economic crisis. The SA economy is on the recovery path, much better than other developing and developed countries - with the exception of China, Brazil and India. The statement has anchored the role of emerging economies - a clear example that our path to recovery can emulate those economies”.
The organisation also stated that it “welcomes the broad thrust of the MTBPS and shares the realistic assessment of the global and domestic economic outlook offered by the minister of finance. While BUSA agrees that a slow but fragile economic recovery is taking place in SA, it is uncertain as to whether a 3% overall growth can still be achieved this year. The Mini-Budget speech also embodied a significant degree of continuity and predictability, which strengthens business confidence.”