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Leadership Intelligence Bulletin
16 October 2012
South Africa
South AfricaA critical view from Zimbabwe

It has become customary for concerns to be expressed from South Africa and elsewhere about the threat that Zimbabwe poses to stability in the Southern African region. Recently the shoe has been on the South African foot as seen from Zimbabwe – and not without reason. 

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Labour crisis
Labour crisisLabour dispensation urgently needs review

South Africa’s collective bargaining system is under threat, the National Union of Mine workers (NUM) and the Congress of South African Trade Unions (Cosatu) said in a statement last week. They blamed employers for their 'grave error' in making settlements outside official bargaining structures. The growing crisis in the country’s formal labour relations dispensation is, however, deeper and more complicated than just that.

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Economy
EconomyTroubled economic times ahead

International organisations are predicting that most global regions are heading for a period of reduced economic growth, with the Sub-Saharan region being one of the few exceptions. South Africa, however, is bunking the Africa trend. The country is expected to return growth rates below the global average for both 2012 and 2013, with an increasing danger of slipping into recessionary conditions. 

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ANC leadership race still too close to call
ANC leadership race still too close to callHow votes are currently placed

The African National Congress has finalised the allocation of the number of voting delegates which each of its provincial, league and other structures can send to its national elective conference at Mangaung in December. Some surprising changes in provincial membership figures have raised eyebrows and additional factors are now coming into play, which may influence the leadership election. Recently released figures make some speculative calculations possible. 

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Mangaung ANC Election
Mangaung ANC ElectionFactors affecting Zuma's re-election

Who will lead the African National Congress and hence the country will be decided at Mangaung at the end of this year. Zuma's re-election or the election of a new party president depends on a number of factors. Having already looked at a breakdown of supporting votes there are other factors affecting the outcome. 

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Statistics
StatisticsThe power of interpretation

Statistics from the United States indicate that the unemployment rate there has dropped to its lowest level in almost four years, giving president Barack Obama a boost as the presidential race enters its final month. In South Africa statistics on ANC membership in various provinces are carefully studied to determine president Jacob Zuma’s re-election chances at the party’s elective conference in December. Interestingly it was in the realm of government that statistics were born.

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Rugby watch
Rugby watchLocal Rugby improves as Springboks play in home teams

Semi-final and promotion relegation time has arrived in the Absa Currie Cup competition. The Vodacom Blue Bulls made it through to the semi-finals and the Toyota Free State Cheetahs will have to overcome the Southern Kings if they want to return to the competition’s premier division next season. 

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Cricket watch
Cricket watchPietersen is history - now for Australia

A week is a very long time in not only in the life of a politician but, it would seem, in the life of an international a cricketer. This is clear from the latest furore around text message sent by England’s South African batsman Kevin Pieterson to South African players, which saw him removed from the England’s nation squad.

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Football watch
Football watchWhat Bafana Bafana can learn

The Cape Verde Island eliminated a former World Cup quarterfinalist Cameroon on Sunday for a place in the African Nations Cup soccer finals for the first time ever despite losing 2-1 in the second leg of their final round qualifier. With a population of 500 000 Cape Verde pulled off one of the biggest shocks in the competition's history with their 3-2 aggregate triumph after winning the first leg at home 2-0 last month. 

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