With the amassing of naval firepower, armaments and troops – American troops are expected to reach the 100 000 mark by March – in the Persian Gulf region, the spectre of what is called a fourth Gulf war, is starting to take on an air of inevitability. If it does come to pass, few countries, including South Africa, will be left untouched. It is at the same time also fundamentally driven by economic considerations and by forging a global strategic realignment, changing the dictates of what can be regarded as being in the best national interest.